Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8
BenficavsVitória SC
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Venue
- Estádio da Luz
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Benfica vs Vitória SC: match review and analysis
Benfica vs Vitória SC in Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Benfica recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 29 and conceding 8. Vitória SC recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 9 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Benfica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 8 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 29 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Benfica: (2.72 weighted goals scored + 0.95 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.83 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Vitória SC: (0.88 weighted goals scored + 0.90 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.89 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Benfica recent form
2.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC PortoPrimeira Liga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| AC MilanUEFA Europa League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| GIL VicentePrimeira Liga | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| MoreirensePrimeira Liga | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| MaritimoPrimeira Liga | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| EstorilPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| AarhusUEFA Europa League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| AarhusUEFA Europa League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Casa PiaPrimeira Liga | Away | 7–0 | Won | |
| Heart Of MidlothianUEFA Europa League | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Benfica’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Vitória SC recent form
0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChavesFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| MoreirensePrimeira Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Casa PiaPrimeira Liga | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SC BragaPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| NacionalPrimeira Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Sporting CPPrimeira Liga | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| AroucaPrimeira Liga | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ChavesFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Nottingham ForestFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Vitória SC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primeira Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Benfica are ranked 3 in Primeira Liga, with 16 points from 7 games.
Vitória SC are ranked 14 in Primeira Liga, with 5 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 16 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.