Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6
Estac TroyesvsMarseille
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Ligue 1
- Venue
- Stade de l'Aube
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Estac Troyes vs Marseille: match review and analysis
Estac Troyes vs Marseille in Ligue 1 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Estac Troyes recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Marseille recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses, with 14 scored and 19 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Estac Troyes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 19 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Estac Troyes: (1.46 weighted goals scored + 2.07 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.76 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Marseille: (1.17 weighted goals scored + 1.99 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.58 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Estac Troyes recent form
1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DijonFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| AngersLigue 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| LilleLigue 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| StrasbourgLigue 1 | Home | 2–6 | Lost | |
| LorientLigue 1 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Paris FCLigue 1 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| PanetolikosFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AuxerreFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Chasselay MDAFriendlies Clubs | Home | 5–2 | Won | |
| GrenobleFriendlies Clubs | Away | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Estac Troyes’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Marseille recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BeşiktaşUEFA Europa League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| RennesLigue 1 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Paris FCLigue 1 | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| MonacoLigue 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| StrasbourgLigue 1 | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| NimesFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| NiceFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Marseille’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Ligue 1 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Estac Troyes are ranked 16 in Ligue 1, with 4 points from 5 games.
Marseille are ranked 17 in Ligue 1, with 3 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Angers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.