Copa Colombia · Round of 16
Santa FevsFortaleza FC
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Copa Colombia
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Santa Fe vs Fortaleza FC: match review and analysis
Santa Fe vs Fortaleza FC in Copa Colombia on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Santa Fe recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Fortaleza FC recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses, with 12 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Santa Fe | Fortaleza FC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 6 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Santa Fe: (1.29 weighted goals scored + 1.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.36 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Fortaleza FC: (1.13 weighted goals scored + 0.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.02 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Santa Fe recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente MedellinPrimera A | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo PereiraPrimera A | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Union MagdalenaCopa Colombia | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Deportivo CaliPrimera A | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Alianza ValleduparPrimera A | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Deportes TolimaPrimera A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Fortaleza FCPrimera A | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MillonariosPrimera A | Home | 3–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Santa Fe’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Fortaleza FC recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MillonariosPrimera A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Deportivo PastoPrimera A | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Deportes TolimaPrimera A | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| JuniorPrimera A | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| JaguaresPrimera A | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Santa FePrimera A | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Once CaldasPrimera A | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ChicoPrimera A | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Atletico NacionalPrimera A | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| CucutaPrimera A | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Fortaleza FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Copa Colombia — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza Valledupar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Popayan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millonarios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Llaneros | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Chico | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 5 | Depor FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 1 |
Fortaleza FC are ranked 2 in Round 1 - Group C, with 5 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Fortaleza FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Leones FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Cucuta | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Orsomarso | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Pereira | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Real Cundinamarca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Águilas Doradas | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Jaguares | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ind. Yumbo | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
A table position is not available for every team in this match.
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.