Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8
AroucavsEstrela
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
Not Started
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Venue
- Estádio Municipal de Arouca
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Arouca vs Estrela: match review and analysis
Arouca vs Estrela in Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Arouca recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 10. Estrela recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses, with 20 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Arouca | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 20 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Arouca: (1.39 weighted goals scored + 1.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.65 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Estrela: (2.06 weighted goals scored + 1.10 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.58 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Arouca recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CPPrimeira Liga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| EstorilPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MaritimoPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| FC PortoPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MoreirensePrimeira Liga | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Vitória SCPrimeira Liga | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Lusitânia LourosaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Santa ClaraFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| FamalicaoFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Arouca’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Estrela recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Rio AvePrimeira Liga | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| SC BragaPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| FamalicaoPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| NacionalPrimeira Liga | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| AlvercaPrimeira Liga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Sporting CPPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Al-NassrFriendlies Clubs | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Lusitano Évora 1911Friendlies Clubs | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| PortimonenseFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Estrela’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primeira Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Arouca are ranked 5 in Primeira Liga, with 11 points from 7 games.
Estrela are ranked 9 in Primeira Liga, with 10 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 16 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.