Primera División · Apertura - 21
AuroravsNacional Potosí
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera División
- Venue
- Felix Capriles
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí: match review and analysis
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí in Primera División on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Aurora recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 9. Nacional Potosí recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 24 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Aurora | Nacional Potosí |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 24 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Aurora: (1.91 weighted goals scored + 1.12 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.52 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Nacional Potosí: (2.46 weighted goals scored + 0.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.68 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Aurora recent form
1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBCopa de la División Profesional | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Real PotosíCopa de la División Profesional | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| San Antonio Bulo BuloCopa de la División Profesional | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ABBCopa de la División Profesional | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Universitario de VintoCopa de la División Profesional | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| GuabiráPrimera División | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| San Antonio Bulo BuloPrimera División | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Real PotosíCopa de la División Profesional | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Gualberto Villarroel SJPrimera División | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Universitario de VintoCopa de la División Profesional | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Aurora’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Nacional Potosí recent form
2.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Always ReadyCopa de la División Profesional | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Real OruroCopa de la División Profesional | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Real TomayapoCopa de la División Profesional | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Always ReadyCopa de la División Profesional | Home | 9–0 | Won | |
| Real PotosíCopa de la División Profesional | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Real PotosíCopa de la División Profesional | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Always ReadyPrimera División | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Gualberto Villarroel SJPrimera División | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Real OruroCopa de la División Profesional | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| BloomingPrimera División | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Nacional Potosí’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera División — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Aurora are ranked 6 in Primera División, with 30 points from 20 games.
Nacional Potosí are ranked 9 in Primera División, with 27 points from 20 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 45 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 45 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 32 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 30 |
| 6 | Aurora | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 30 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 29 |
| 8 | Blooming | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 27 |
| 9 | Nacional Potosí | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 27 |
| 10 | Independiente Petrolero | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 25 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 21 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 21 |
| 13 | ABB | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Universitario de Vinto | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 18 |
| 15 | Real Tomayapo | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 39 | -24 | 17 |
| 16 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 20 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 14 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.