Primera B · Clausura - 5
Union MagdalenavsLeones FC
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera B
- Venue
- Estadio Sierra Nevada
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Union Magdalena vs Leones FC: match review and analysis
Union Magdalena vs Leones FC in Primera B on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Union Magdalena recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Leones FC recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses, with 7 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Union Magdalena | Leones FC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Union Magdalena: (1.18 weighted goals scored + 1.53 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.36 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Leones FC: (0.63 weighted goals scored + 1.20 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.92 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Union Magdalena recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PopayanPrimera B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Real SantanderPrimera B | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Real CartagenaPrimera B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Santa FeCopa Colombia | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| PatriotasPrimera B | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Real CundinamarcaPrimera B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BarranquillaPrimera B | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| EnvigadoPrimera B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| QuindioPrimera B | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Tigres FCPrimera B | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Union Magdalena’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Leones FC recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BarranquillaPrimera B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Internacional PalmiraPrimera B | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| PopayanPrimera B | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| EnvigadoPrimera B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Depor FCPrimera B | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Ind. YumboPrimera B | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Real CartagenaPrimera B | Home | 1–6 | Lost | |
| Real CundinamarcaPrimera B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Bogota FCPrimera B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| QuindioPrimera B | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Leones FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Union Magdalena are ranked 5 in Primera B: Tabla Anual, with 53 points from 32 games.
Leones FC are ranked 16 in Primera B: Tabla Anual, with 20 points from 26 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 40 | 28 | 12 | 59 |
| 2 | Quindio | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 57 |
| 3 | Envigado | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 46 | 31 | 15 | 56 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 35 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 55 | 41 | 14 | 56 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 31 | 14 | 53 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | Ind. Yumbo | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 43 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 9 | Real Cundinamarca | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 36 |
| 10 | Barranquilla | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 35 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 34 |
| 12 | Popayan | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 31 |
| 13 | Orsomarso | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 27 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 24 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 41 | -25 | 20 |
Union Magdalena are ranked 2 in Primera B: Apertura, with 32 points from 15 games.
Leones FC are ranked 14 in Primera B: Apertura, with 10 points from 15 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 38 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 32 |
| 3 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Tigres FC | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
| 12 | Popayan | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 | Real Cundinamarca | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 10 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 9 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 |
Union Magdalena are ranked 2 in Primera B: Apertura - Quadrangular, with 9 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Quindio | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Internacional Palmira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Barranquilla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | Tigres FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | Bogota FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
Union Magdalena are ranked 12 in Primera B: Clausura, with 12 points from 11 games.
Leones FC are ranked 15 in Primera B: Clausura, with 10 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Yumbo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Cundinamarca | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Tigres FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Popayan | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Patriotas | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Real Cartagena | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Quindio | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Depor FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
| 9 | Real Santander | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Internacional Palmira | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Envigado | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Union Magdalena | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Bogota FC | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Orsomarso | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Leones FC | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 10 |
| 16 | Barranquilla | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.