Liga Nacional · Apertura - 9
OlanchovsAtletico Independiente
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 8 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga Nacional
- Venue
- Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente: match review and analysis
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente in Liga Nacional on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Olancho recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Atletico Independiente recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 7 scored and 11 conceded across 8 games.
| Statistic | Olancho | Atletico Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 8 |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Olancho: (0.69 weighted goals scored + 1.67 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.18 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Atletico Independiente: (0.78 weighted goals scored + 0.76 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.77 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Olancho recent form
0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GénesisLiga Nacional | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Real EspanaLiga Nacional | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Atlético CholomaLiga Nacional | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CD MotaguaLiga Nacional | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| CD OlimpiaLiga Nacional | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| JuticalpaLiga Nacional | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Lobos UpnfmLiga Nacional | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Estrella RojaLiga Nacional | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| GénesisLiga Nacional | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CD MotaguaLiga Nacional | Home | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Olancho’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 8 GAMES
Atletico Independiente recent form
0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 6 of 8 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD OlimpiaLiga Nacional | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| JuticalpaLiga Nacional | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CD MotaguaLiga Nacional | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Platense FCLiga Nacional | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| GénesisLiga Nacional | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Real EspanaLiga Nacional | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Atlético CholomaLiga Nacional | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CD MarathonLiga Nacional | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Atletico Independiente’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 8 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga Nacional — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Olancho are ranked 6 in Apertura, with 11 points from 8 games.
Atletico Independiente are ranked 8 in Apertura, with 9 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 17 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Génesis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Olancho | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Atletico Independiente | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.