Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26
Rodina Moskva III1–0Arsenal Tula II
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Second League - Group 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Rodina Moskva III vs Arsenal Tula II: match review and analysis
Rodina Moskva III vs Arsenal Tula II in Second League - Group 3 on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Rodina Moskva III recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 21 and conceding 16. Arsenal Tula II recorded 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, with 5 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Rodina Moskva III | Arsenal Tula II |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 6 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 5 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Rodina Moskva III: (2.16 weighted goals scored + 1.05 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.61 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Arsenal Tula II: (0.44 weighted goals scored + 1.59 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.01 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Rodina Moskva III recent form
2.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StroginoSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 5–2 | Won | |
| SKA Khabarovsk IISecond League - Group 3 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| ShumbratSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| FK Spartak TambovSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Volna NizhegorodskayaSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| RyazanSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Rotor-2Second League - Group 3 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| KvantSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Salyut-BelgorodSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Rodina Moskva III’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Arsenal Tula II recent form
0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metallurg LipetskSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Zenit PenzaSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Saturn RamenskoyeSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| StroginoSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| SKA Khabarovsk IISecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ShumbratSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| FK Spartak TambovSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Avangard KurskSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Volna NizhegorodskayaSecond League - Group 3 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| RyazanSecond League - Group 3 | Home | 0–5 | Lost |
Scores shown from Arsenal Tula II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Second League - Group 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Rodina Moskva III are ranked 9 in Central, with 28 points from 22 games.
Arsenal Tula II are ranked 15 in Central, with 14 points from 22 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 12 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 35 | 13 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 44 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 22 | 64 | -42 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.