III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 11
Jarosław1–3Naprzód
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- III Liga - Group 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–3
- 90-minute score
- 1–3
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Jarosław vs Naprzód: match review and analysis
Jarosław vs Naprzód in III Liga - Group 4 on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–3. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Jarosław recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 26 and conceding 17. Naprzód recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 24 scored and 20 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Jarosław | Naprzód |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 26 | 24 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 20 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Jarosław: (2.95 weighted goals scored + 1.95 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.45 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Naprzód: (2.65 weighted goals scored + 1.64 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.14 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Jarosław recent form
2.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moravia MorawicaIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 5–2 | Won | |
| Wiślanie JaśkowiceIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Korona Kielce IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 6–2 | Won | |
| Star StarachowiceIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Podlasie Biała PodlaskaIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Siarka TarnobrzegIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| KS Wieczysta Krakow IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Wisłoka DębicaIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Sokół Kolb.III Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Jarosław’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Naprzód recent form
2.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busko-ZdrojIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Czarni PołaniecIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 5–2 | Won | |
| Hetman ZamoscIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| KSZO 1929III Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Wisła Kraków IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Chełmianka ChełmIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Moravia MorawicaIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Wiślanie JaśkowiceIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Korona Kielce IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 5–4 | Won |
Scores shown from Naprzód’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
III Liga - Group 4 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Naprzód are ranked 4 in Group IV, with 20 points from 11 games.
Jarosław are ranked 6 in Group IV, with 17 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Wisłoka Dębica | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 22 |
| 3 | KSZO 1929 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Jarosław | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Busko-Zdroj | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sokół Kolb. | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.