Championship · Regular Season - 9
Livingston1–2Ayr Utd
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Championship
- Venue
- The Home of the Set Fare Arena
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–2
- 90-minute score
- 1–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Livingston vs Ayr Utd: match review and analysis
Livingston vs Ayr Utd in Championship on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Livingston recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 7. Ayr Utd recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 13 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Livingston | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 20 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 7 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Livingston: (1.96 weighted goals scored + 1.29 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.62 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ayr Utd: (1.09 weighted goals scored + 0.78 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.94 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Livingston recent form
2.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raith RoversChampionship | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Inverness CTChampionship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MortonChampionship | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| StenhousemuirChampionship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ArbroathChampionship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| DunfermlineChampionship | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| PartickChampionship | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Queen's ParkChampionship | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| StenhousemuirLeague Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Forfar AthleticLeague Cup | Home | 8–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Livingston’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Ayr Utd recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StenhousemuirChampionship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Queen's ParkChampionship | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Inverness CTChampionship | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| PartickChampionship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MortonChampionship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Raith RoversChampionship | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| KilmarnockLeague Cup | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| DunfermlineChampionship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ArbroathChampionship | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Alloa AthleticLeague Cup | Home | 4–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Ayr Utd’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Livingston are ranked 4 in Division1, with 13 points from 9 games.
Ayr Utd are ranked 6 in Division1, with 11 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Partick | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Livingston | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Ayr Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Arbroath | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.