League Two · Regular Season - 9
Rochdale1–0Swindon Town
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- League Two
- Venue
- Spotland
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Rochdale vs Swindon Town: match review and analysis
Rochdale vs Swindon Town in League Two on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Rochdale recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 16. Swindon Town recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 10 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Rochdale | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Rochdale: (1.56 weighted goals scored + 1.71 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.63 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Swindon Town: (0.78 weighted goals scored + 1.58 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.18 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Rochdale recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood TownLeague Two | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Liverpool U21EFL Trophy | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| OldhamLeague Two | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| WalsallLeague Two | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| GillinghamLeague Two | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| ShrewsburyLeague Two | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| ColchesterLeague Two | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Crawley TownLeague Two | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Newport CountyLeague Two | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| BradfordLeague Cup | Away | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Rochdale’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Swindon Town recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington STLeague Two | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Newport CountyEFL Trophy | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Salford CityLeague Two | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Crystal Palace U21EFL Trophy | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| YorkLeague Two | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| ColchesterLeague Two | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Port ValeLeague Two | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| OldhamLeague Two | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| CheltenhamLeague Two | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| NorthamptonLeague Two | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Swindon Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
League Two — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Rochdale are ranked 11 in League Two, with 13 points from 9 games.
Swindon Town are ranked 13 in League Two, with 11 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport County | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington ST | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.