National League · Regular Season - 12
Hartlepool0–1Tamworth
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National League
- Venue
- Victoria Park
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Hartlepool vs Tamworth: match review and analysis
Hartlepool vs Tamworth in National League on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Hartlepool recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 5 and conceding 17. Tamworth recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses, with 16 scored and 26 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Hartlepool | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 9 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 5 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 26 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Hartlepool: (0.49 weighted goals scored + 2.72 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.60 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Tamworth: (1.48 weighted goals scored + 1.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.61 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Hartlepool recent form
0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate TownNational League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ScunthorpeNational League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| WorthingNational League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| AltrinchamNational League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Kidderminster HarriersNational League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Everton U21National League Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| WokingNational League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| FC Halifax TownNational League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| EastleighNational League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Sutton UtdNational League | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Hartlepool’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Tamworth recent form
1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton UtdNational League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Aldershot TownNational League | Away | 1–5 | Lost | |
| WealdstoneNational League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| SouthendNational League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Harrogate TownNational League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Middlesbrough U21National League Cup | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Boston UnitedNational League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Yeovil TownNational League | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| WorthingNational League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| FC Halifax TownNational League | Away | 1–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Tamworth’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Tamworth are ranked 18 in Conference, with 14 points from 12 games.
Hartlepool are ranked 22 in Conference, with 9 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Southend | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Worthing | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 17 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 16 |
| 15 | Woking | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.