National League · Regular Season - 12
Southend3–1AFC Fylde
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National League
- Venue
- Roots Hall
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–1
- 90-minute score
- 3–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Southend vs AFC Fylde: match review and analysis
Southend vs AFC Fylde in National League on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Southend recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 16. AFC Fylde recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, with 19 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Southend | AFC Fylde |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 19 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Southend: (2.35 weighted goals scored + 1.22 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.79 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
AFC Fylde: (1.83 weighted goals scored + 1.80 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.82 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Southend recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EastleighNational League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BarrowNational League | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| GatesheadNational League | Away | 6–1 | Won | |
| TamworthNational League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| CarlisleNational League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Yeovil TownNational League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| WokingNational League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Kidderminster HarriersNational League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Solihull MoorsNational League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| ScunthorpeNational League | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Southend’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
AFC Fylde recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CarlisleNational League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Boston UnitedNational League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| AltrinchamNational League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Harrogate TownNational League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Yeovil TownNational League | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| WorthingNational League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Solihull MoorsNational League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Forest GreenNational League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| WokingNational League | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| TamworthNational League | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from AFC Fylde’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Southend are ranked 3 in Conference, with 24 points from 12 games.
AFC Fylde are ranked 7 in Conference, with 20 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 13 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Southend | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Worthing | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 17 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 16 |
| 15 | Woking | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.