Lancaster City2–1Ilkeston Town

Real Scored match analysis

Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town: match review and analysis

Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town in Non League Premier - Northern on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.

Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.

Lancaster City recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Ilkeston Town recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 9 losses, with 5 scored and 27 conceded across 10 games.

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Lancaster City: (1.00 weighted goals scored + 2.79 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.89 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Ilkeston Town: (0.55 weighted goals scored + 1.76 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.15 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.