Penicuik Athletic3–1Kilwinning Rangers

Real Scored match analysis

Penicuik Athletic vs Kilwinning Rangers: match review and analysis

Penicuik Athletic vs Kilwinning Rangers in FA Cup on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–1. Review the team form and league context below.

Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.

Penicuik Athletic recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 27. Kilwinning Rangers recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 31 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Penicuik Athletic: (1.33 weighted goals scored + 1.37 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.35 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Kilwinning Rangers: (3.22 weighted goals scored + 2.83 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 3.03 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.