FA Cup · 3rd Round Qualifying
Bury Town1–1Spalding United
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- FA Cup
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Bury Town vs Spalding United: match review and analysis
Bury Town vs Spalding United in FA Cup on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Bury Town recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 25 and conceding 17. Spalding United recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 14 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Bury Town | Spalding United |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 8 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 25 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Bury Town: (2.31 weighted goals scored + 0.94 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.63 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Spalding United: (1.52 weighted goals scored + 1.67 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.59 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Bury Town recent form
2.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop's StortfordNon League Premier - Southern Central | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| St Albans CityFA Trophy | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Hitchin TownNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| GorlestonFA Cup | Away | 4–3 | Won | |
| Bromsgrove SportingNon League Premier - Southern Central | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| London LionsFA Cup | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| LeistonNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 4–3 | Won | |
| Leighton TownNon League Premier - Southern Central | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| LeamingtonNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Stratford TownNon League Premier - Southern Central | Away | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Bury Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Spalding United recent form
1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChorleyNational League - North | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Hanley TownFA Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Bedford TownNational League - North | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Spennymoor TownNational League - North | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| SouthportNational League - North | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| South ShieldsNational League - North | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Worksop TownNational League - North | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| ChesterNational League - North | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MacclesfieldNational League - North | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Oxford CityNational League - North | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Spalding United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
FA Cup — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.