Segunda División · Regular Season - 8
Almeria2–1Burgos
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda División
- Venue
- UD Almería Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Almeria vs Burgos: match review and analysis
Almeria vs Burgos in Segunda División on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Almeria recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 5. Burgos recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 12 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Almeria | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 5 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Almeria: (1.81 weighted goals scored + 0.86 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.34 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Burgos: (1.23 weighted goals scored + 0.50 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.87 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Almeria recent form
1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MallorcaSegunda División | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Celta de Vigo IISegunda División | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| CordobaSegunda División | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| CadizSegunda División | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| SabadellSegunda División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| TenerifeSegunda División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| EldenseSegunda División | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| CordobaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Al-NassrFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Real BetisFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Almeria’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Burgos recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EldenseSegunda División | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Las PalmasSegunda División | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| AD Ceuta FCSegunda División | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| OviedoSegunda División | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Real Sociedad IISegunda División | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Sporting GijonSegunda División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CordobaSegunda División | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Cultural LeonesaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Unionistas de SalamancaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Burgos’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda División — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Almeria are ranked 3 in Segunda, with 18 points from 8 games.
Burgos are ranked 6 in Segunda, with 14 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Castellón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Almeria | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Girona | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Mallorca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Burgos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Granada CF | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Oviedo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Leganes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Valladolid | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Cordoba | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Eldense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Celta de Vigo II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| 20 | FC Andorra | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.