Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5
Aurrerá Vitoria2–1Erandio
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 4 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Aurrerá Vitoria vs Erandio: match review and analysis
Aurrerá Vitoria vs Erandio in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Aurrerá Vitoria recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Erandio recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 5 scored and 4 conceded across 4 games.
| Statistic | Aurrerá Vitoria | Erandio |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 4 |
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 5 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 4 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 3 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Aurrerá Vitoria: (1.51 weighted goals scored + 1.14 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.33 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Erandio: (1.30 weighted goals scored + 0.96 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.13 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Aurrerá Vitoria recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SodupeTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo Alavés IIITercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| TouringTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Amurrio ClubTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| DeustoTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| PortugaleteTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| San IgnacioTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| DerioTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TouringTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Deportivo Alavés IIITercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Aurrerá Vitoria’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 4 GAMES
Erandio recent form
1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 of 4 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amurrio ClubTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Eibar IIITercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| R. Union BTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Pasaia KETercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Erandio’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 4 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Aurrerá Vitoria are ranked 1 in Tercera: Group 4, with 13 points from 5 games.
Erandio are ranked 11 in Tercera: Group 4, with 6 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Derio | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Pasaia KE | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Leioa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad III | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Touring | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Aretxabaleta | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Lagun Onak | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Durango | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Erandio | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | San Ignacio | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | R. Union B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Sodupe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Beasain | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.