Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5
Villaverde Norte1–2Mensajero
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 3 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–2
- 90-minute score
- 1–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Villaverde Norte vs Mensajero: match review and analysis
Villaverde Norte vs Mensajero in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Villaverde Norte recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in the 3 games used here, scoring 2 and conceding 6. Mensajero recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, with 8 scored and 5 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Villaverde Norte | Mensajero |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 10 |
| Wins | 0 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 2 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 6 | 5 |
| Over 1.5 games | 3 | 3 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Villaverde Norte: (0.68 weighted goals scored + 0.58 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.63 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Mensajero: (0.69 weighted goals scored + 1.83 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.26 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 3 GAMES
Villaverde Norte recent form
0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 3 of 3 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa Santa BrígidaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| LanzaroteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| EstrellaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Villaverde Norte’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 3 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
Mensajero recent form
0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San MiguelTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AnazaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Tenerife CTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Real MurciaCopa Federacion | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TamaraceiteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| TamaraceiteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| UD San FernandoTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| ArucasTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Villa Santa BrígidaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Unión Sur YaizaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Mensajero’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Mensajero are ranked 3 in Group 12, with 9 points from 4 games.
Villaverde Norte are ranked 17 in Group 12, with 1 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Mensajero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | San Bartolomé | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Marino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | Las Palmas III | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | San Miguel | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Panadería Pulido | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Los Llanos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Lanzarote | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Villa Santa Brígida | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Tenerife C | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Estrella | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Anaza | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Laguna de Duero | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Villaverde Norte | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Playas Sotavento | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.