USL Championship · Group Stage
FC Tulsa1–1Sacramento Republic
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- USL Championship
- Venue
- ONEOK Field
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic: match review and analysis
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic in USL Championship on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
FC Tulsa recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Sacramento Republic recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses, with 12 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | FC Tulsa | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 4 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
FC Tulsa: (1.15 weighted goals scored + 1.03 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.09 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Sacramento Republic: (1.40 weighted goals scored + 0.73 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.06 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
FC Tulsa recent form
1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| El Paso LocomotiveUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BrooklynUSL Championship | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Phoenix RisingUSL Championship | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| San AntonioUSL Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Rhode IslandUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Orange County SCUSL Championship | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Detroit CityUSL Championship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from FC Tulsa’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Sacramento Republic recent form
1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas LightsUSL Championship | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| San AntonioUSL Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Detroit CityUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Orange County SCUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Monterey BayUSL Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Phoenix RisingUSL Championship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| LexingtonUSL Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Pittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| FC TulsaUSL Championship | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sacramento Republic’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 73 | -41 | 14 |
Sacramento Republic are ranked 3 in USL Championship, with 44 points from 27 games.
FC Tulsa are ranked 5 in USL Championship, with 43 points from 28 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 21 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.