Primera Premier · Regular Season - 6
Lobos ULMX2–1Tritons Vallarta
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera Premier
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Lobos ULMX vs Tritons Vallarta: match review and analysis
Lobos ULMX vs Tritons Vallarta in Primera Premier on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Lobos ULMX recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 18. Tritons Vallarta recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 6 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Lobos ULMX | Tritons Vallarta |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 6 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 4 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Lobos ULMX: (1.09 weighted goals scored + 0.87 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.98 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Tritons Vallarta: (0.56 weighted goals scored + 1.79 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.18 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Lobos ULMX recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IrapuatoPrimera Premier | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Tigres de AlicaPrimera Premier | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Los Cabos UnitedPrimera Premier | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Zacatepec 1948Primera Premier | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Calor de San PedroLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| ZitacuaroLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Atletico HidalgoLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| CordobésLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Deportivo ZapLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Gavilanes FC MatamorosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Lobos ULMX’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Tritons Vallarta recent form
0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres de AlicaPrimera Premier | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Los Cabos UnitedPrimera Premier | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Zacatepec 1948Primera Premier | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Reboceros La PiedadPrimera Premier | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Deportiva VenadosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Deportiva VenadosLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TapachulaLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TapachulaLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Leones NegrosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| GuerrerosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Tritons Vallarta’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera Premier — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Lobos ULMX are ranked 14 in Regular Season, with 4 points from 5 games.
Tritons Vallarta are ranked 17 in Regular Season, with 2 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | Celaya | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Reboceros La Piedad | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Racing de Veracruz | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 11 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Zacatepec 1948 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Los Cabos United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Montañeses | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Deportiva Venados | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Chapulineros | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 13 | Cordobés | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Lobos ULMX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Tapachula | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Tritons Vallarta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 18 | H2O Purepechas | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.