Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5
UD San Fernando3–0Estrella
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–0
- 90-minute score
- 3–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
UD San Fernando vs Estrella: match review and analysis
UD San Fernando vs Estrella in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
UD San Fernando recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 9. Estrella recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 15 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | UD San Fernando | Estrella |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
UD San Fernando: (1.97 weighted goals scored + 1.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.86 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Estrella: (1.49 weighted goals scored + 0.93 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.21 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
UD San Fernando recent form
1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión Sur YaizaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Playas SotaventoTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| Laguna de DueroTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| TamaraceiteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TamaraceiteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Panadería PulidoTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Panadería PulidoTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| MensajeroTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Tenerife CTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| San BartoloméTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from UD San Fernando’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Estrella recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas IIITercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| San BartoloméTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Villaverde NorteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| HerbaniaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| San BartoloméTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Santa ÚrsulaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BuzanadaTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MarinoTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MensajeroTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| LanzaroteTercera División RFEF - Group 12 | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Estrella’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
UD San Fernando are ranked 1 in Group 12, with 9 points from 4 games.
Estrella are ranked 13 in Group 12, with 4 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Mensajero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | San Bartolomé | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Marino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | Las Palmas III | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | San Miguel | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Panadería Pulido | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Los Llanos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Lanzarote | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Villa Santa Brígida | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Tenerife C | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Estrella | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Anaza | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Laguna de Duero | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Villaverde Norte | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Playas Sotavento | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.