Ligue A · Regular Season - 5
Le Messager Ngozi1–0Panthere Noir
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 3 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Ligue A
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Le Messager Ngozi vs Panthere Noir: match review and analysis
Le Messager Ngozi vs Panthere Noir in Ligue A on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Le Messager Ngozi recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Panthere Noir recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, with 2 scored and 4 conceded across 3 games.
| Statistic | Le Messager Ngozi | Panthere Noir |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 3 |
| Wins | 5 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 2 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 4 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 2 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Le Messager Ngozi: (1.37 weighted goals scored + 1.34 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.35 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Panthere Noir: (0.59 weighted goals scored + 0.74 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.66 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Le Messager Ngozi recent form
1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Never Give Up AcademyLigue A | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MuzingaLigue A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| BumamuruLigue A | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Inter StarLigue A | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Vital'OLigue A | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Royal VisionLigue A | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Aigle NoirLigue A | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Olympic StarLigue A | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| MusongatiLigue A | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| RukinzoLigue A | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Le Messager Ngozi’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 3 GAMES
Panthere Noir recent form
0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 2 of 3 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MuzingaLigue A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| BumamuruLigue A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| RukinzoLigue A | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Panthere Noir’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 3 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Ligue A — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Le Messager Ngozi are ranked 4 in Ligue A, with 10 points from 4 games.
Panthere Noir are ranked 15 in Ligue A, with 1 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Aigle Noir | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Ngozi City | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Rukinzo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | Vital'O | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Olympic Star | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Flambeau du Centre | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Kayanza United | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Musongati | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Inter Star | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Panthere Noir | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Young Star | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.