Serie D - Girone H · Group H - 6
USD Palmese4–2Nardò
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie D - Girone H
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 4–2
- 90-minute score
- 4–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
USD Palmese vs Nardò: match review and analysis
USD Palmese vs Nardò in Serie D - Girone H on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 4–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
USD Palmese recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 21. Nardò recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 7 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | USD Palmese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
USD Palmese: (0.77 weighted goals scored + 1.15 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.96 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Nardò: (0.75 weighted goals scored + 2.08 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.41 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
USD Palmese recent form
0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NocerinaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Real NormannaSerie D - Girone H | Home | 3–4 | Lost | |
| FrancavillaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| TurrisSerie D - Girone H | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Virtus FrancavillaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| MonastirSerie D - Girone G | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| ScafateseSerie D - Girone G | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| IschiaSerie D - Girone G | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Latte DolceSerie D - Girone G | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| FlaminiaSerie D - Girone G | Home | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from USD Palmese’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Nardò recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martina FrancaSerie D - Girone H | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| IschiaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| MelfiSerie D - Girone H | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| EbolitanaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BisceglieSerie D - Girone H | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Martina FrancaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BarlettaSerie D - Girone H | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| FerrandinaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ManfredoniaSerie D - Girone H | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| SarneseSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Nardò’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie D - Girone H — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
USD Palmese are ranked 13 in Serie D: Group H, with 7 points from 6 games.
Nardò are ranked 14 in Serie D: Group H, with 5 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nocerina | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Martina Franca | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Bisceglie | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Turris | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Gravina | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Manfredonia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Real Normanna | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Brindisi | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ebolitana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Real Forio 2014 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Gladiator | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | USD Palmese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Nardò | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Melfi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Fidelis Andria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Ischia | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.