Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5
Alcantarilla1–1Santa Cruz
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 13
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz: match review and analysis
Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Alcantarilla recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 8 and conceding 13. Santa Cruz recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 14 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Alcantarilla | Santa Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 8 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Alcantarilla: (0.93 weighted goals scored + 1.23 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.08 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Santa Cruz: (1.47 weighted goals scored + 1.07 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.27 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Alcantarilla recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bala AzulTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cotillas CDTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Atlético PulpileñoTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Águilas IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Atlético PulpileñoTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Águilas IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Lorca DeportivaTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| SantomeraTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| UCAM Murcia IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Real Murcia IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Alcantarilla’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Santa Cruz recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Mazarrón FCTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Olímpico TotanaTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| San JavierTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Cartagena LU IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Real Murcia IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Yeclano IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| SFC MinervaTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Atlético PulpileñoTercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Águilas IITercera División RFEF - Group 13 | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Santa Cruz’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Alcantarilla are ranked 3 in Tercera: Group 13, with 9 points from 5 games.
Santa Cruz are ranked 9 in Tercera: Group 13, with 6 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | San Javier | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Alcantarilla | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Unión Molinense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Atlético Pulpileño | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Olímpico Totana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | SFC Minerva | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Cotillas CD | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Cruz | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | UCAM Murcia II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Bullas Deportivo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Águilas II | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Bala Azul | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Los Garres | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Cartagena LU II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Balsicas Atlético | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Algar | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Mazarrón FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.