USL Super League · Group Stage
Tampa Bay Sun W1–1Lexington W
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- USL Super League
- Venue
- Riverfront Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W: match review and analysis
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W in USL Super League on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Tampa Bay Sun W recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 17. Lexington W recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 15 scored and 5 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tampa Bay Sun W | Lexington W |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 5 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tampa Bay Sun W: (1.21 weighted goals scored + 0.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.84 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Lexington W: (1.46 weighted goals scored + 1.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.50 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Tampa Bay Sun W recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC Power WUSL Super League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Fort Lauderdale United WUSL Super League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Carolina Ascent WUSL Super League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sporting JAX WUSL Super League | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Dallas Trinity WUSL Super League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Lexington WUSL Super League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Dallas Trinity WUSL Super League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Fort Lauderdale United WUSL Super League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Carolina Ascent WUSL Super League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Lexington WUSL Super League | Away | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Tampa Bay Sun W’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Lexington W recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Trinity WUSL Super League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Sporting JAX WUSL Super League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Carolina Ascent WUSL Super League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| DC Power WUSL Super League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Brooklyn WUSL Super League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Carolina Ascent WUSL Super League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Dallas Trinity WUSL Super League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Tampa Bay Sun WUSL Super League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Brooklyn WUSL Super League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Spokane Zephyr WUSL Super League | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Lexington W’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL Super League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Lexington W are ranked 4 in Usl Super League Women, with 10 points from 6 games.
Tampa Bay Sun W are ranked 6 in Usl Super League Women, with 9 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | DC Power W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting JAX W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lexington W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Dallas Trinity W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Brooklyn W | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.