Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 21
La Luz3–2CA River Plate
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda División
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–2
- 90-minute score
- 3–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
La Luz vs CA River Plate: match review and analysis
La Luz vs CA River Plate in Segunda División on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
La Luz recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 8 and conceding 14. CA River Plate recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 13 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | La Luz | CA River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 8 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
La Luz: (0.78 weighted goals scored + 0.83 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.81 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
CA River Plate: (1.24 weighted goals scored + 1.49 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.37 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
La Luz recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CerritoSegunda División | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| AtenasSegunda División | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| PaysanduSegunda División | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Sportivo HuracanSegunda División | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Uruguay MontevideoSegunda División | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| OrientalSegunda División | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| ColónSegunda División | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| FenixSegunda División | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| RentistasSegunda División | Home | 2–5 | Lost | |
| MiramarSegunda División | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from La Luz’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
CA River Plate recent form
1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ColónSegunda División | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| CerritoSegunda División | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Albion FCCopa Uruguay | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| FenixSegunda División | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| AtenasSegunda División | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Club NacionalCopa Uruguay | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| RentistasSegunda División | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ProgresoCopa Uruguay | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| PaysanduSegunda División | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MiramarSegunda División | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from CA River Plate’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda División — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
La Luz are ranked 9 in 1st Phase, with 7 points from 6 games.
CA River Plate are ranked 13 in 1st Phase, with 4 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
CA River Plate are ranked 5 in 2nd Phase, with 30 points from 21 games.
La Luz are ranked 9 in 2nd Phase, with 27 points from 21 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atenas | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | Rentistas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 33 |
| 3 | Oriental | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 32 |
| 4 | Plaza Colonia | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 32 |
| 5 | CA River Plate | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 30 |
| 6 | Colón | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 30 |
| 7 | Cerrito | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Fenix | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 29 |
| 9 | La Luz | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Sportivo Huracan | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 26 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 25 |
| 12 | Miramar | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
| 13 | Tacuarembo | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 24 |
| 14 | Uruguay Montevideo | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 17 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.