Primera División · Clausura - 9
Racing Montevideo0–1Penarol
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera División
- Venue
- Estadio Centenario
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: match review and analysis
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol in Primera División on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Racing Montevideo recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Penarol recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses, with 16 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Racing Montevideo | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Racing Montevideo: (1.20 weighted goals scored + 0.87 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.04 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Penarol: (1.67 weighted goals scored + 1.53 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.60 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Racing Montevideo recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProgresoPrimera División | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| JuventudCopa Uruguay | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Boston RiverPrimera División | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Central EspanolCopa Uruguay | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| CerroPrimera División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| OrientalCopa Uruguay | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Albion FCPrimera División | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| DanubioPrimera División | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Club NacionalPrimera División | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Racing Montevideo’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Penarol recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico TorquePrimera División | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Boston RiverPrimera División | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| DanubioCopa Uruguay | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CerroPrimera División | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Albion FCPrimera División | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| DanubioPrimera División | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| AtenasCopa Uruguay | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Club NacionalPrimera División | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Atletico TorqueCopa Uruguay | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera División | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Penarol’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera División — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Penarol are ranked 1 in Primera: Tabla Anual, with 62 points from 31 games.
Racing Montevideo are ranked 4 in Primera: Tabla Anual, with 53 points from 31 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 58 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 37 | 16 | 57 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 31 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 53 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 31 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 52 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 50 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 49 |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 38 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Juventud | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 33 |
| 13 | Cerro | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 33 |
| 14 | Boston River | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 31 |
| 15 | Danubio | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 29 |
| 16 | Progreso | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 28 |
Penarol are ranked 1 in Primera: Promedios, with 141 points from 68 games.
Racing Montevideo are ranked 5 in Primera: Promedios, with 106 points from 68 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 68 | 43 | 12 | 13 | 116 | 59 | 57 | 141 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 68 | 40 | 14 | 14 | 123 | 71 | 52 | 131 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 58 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 68 | 31 | 21 | 16 | 93 | 67 | 26 | 114 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 68 | 28 | 22 | 18 | 75 | 63 | 12 | 106 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 69 | 30 | 16 | 23 | 107 | 88 | 19 | 106 |
| 7 | Juventud | 68 | 27 | 17 | 24 | 80 | 78 | 2 | 98 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 68 | 26 | 18 | 24 | 70 | 74 | -4 | 96 |
| 9 | Boston River | 68 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 79 | 81 | -2 | 86 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 38 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 68 | 20 | 22 | 26 | 70 | 77 | -7 | 82 |
| 12 | Wanderers | 68 | 20 | 21 | 27 | 65 | 83 | -18 | 81 |
| 13 | Albion FC | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 37 |
| 14 | Cerro | 68 | 21 | 17 | 30 | 56 | 87 | -31 | 79 |
| 15 | Danubio | 69 | 15 | 27 | 27 | 67 | 82 | -15 | 72 |
| 16 | Progreso | 68 | 18 | 13 | 37 | 65 | 106 | -41 | 67 |
Penarol are ranked 1 in Primera: Torneo Intermedio, with 16 points from 7 games.
Racing Montevideo are ranked 3 in Primera: Torneo Intermedio, with 10 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
Racing Montevideo are ranked 1 in Primera: Apertura, with 31 points from 15 games.
Penarol are ranked 4 in Primera: Apertura, with 27 points from 15 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 10 |
Penarol are ranked 3 in Primera: Clausura, with 19 points from 9 games.
Racing Montevideo are ranked 9 in Primera: Clausura, with 12 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Penarol | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Juventud | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Cerro | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Progreso | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Boston River | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Danubio | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Central Espanol | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 |
| 16 | Albion FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.