FAW Championship · South - 11
Aberystwyth TownvsCaerau (Ely)
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
Not Started
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- FAW Championship
- Venue
- Park Avenue
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely): match review and analysis
Aberystwyth Town vs Caerau (Ely) in FAW Championship on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Aberystwyth Town recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 11. Caerau (Ely) recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 25 scored and 22 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Aberystwyth Town | Caerau (Ely) |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 25 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 22 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Aberystwyth Town: (2.29 weighted goals scored + 1.92 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.10 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Caerau (Ely): (2.50 weighted goals scored + 0.88 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.69 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Aberystwyth Town recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd TownFAW Championship | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Swansea UniversityFAW Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Caerphilly AthleticFAW Championship | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| llanelli AFCFAW Championship | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Pontardawe TownFAW Championship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Llantwit MajorFAW Championship | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| Treowen StarsFAW Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Afan LidoFAW Championship | Away | 5–2 | Won | |
| Ynyshir AlbionsFAW Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Cwmbran CelticFAW Championship | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Aberystwyth Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Caerau (Ely) recent form
2.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afan LidoFAW Championship | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Cardiff DraconiansFAW Championship | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| llanelli AFCFAW Championship | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Treowen StarsFAW Championship | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Baglan DragonsFAW Championship | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Swansea UniversityFAW Championship | Home | 1–5 | Lost | |
| Trethomas BluebirdsFAW Championship | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| Ynyshir AlbionsFAW Championship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Carmarthen TownFAW Championship | Away | 3–4 | Lost | |
| Barnstaple TownFriendlies Clubs | Home | 4–4 | Draw |
Scores shown from Caerau (Ely)’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
FAW Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Aberystwyth Town are ranked 2 in South, with 19 points from 8 games.
Caerau (Ely) are ranked 4 in South, with 16 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 11 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 6 | Caersws | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Llanuwchllyn | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
| 13 | Denbigh Town | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 30 | -26 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.