Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Group C - 5
AD NogueirensevsNaval 1893
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 8 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1893: match review and analysis
AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1893 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
AD Nogueirense recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the 8 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Naval 1893 recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 11 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | AD Nogueirense | Naval 1893 |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
AD Nogueirense: (1.22 weighted goals scored + 1.04 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.13 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Naval 1893: (1.02 weighted goals scored + 1.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.22 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 8 GAMES
AD Nogueirense recent form
1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 6 of 8 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Castelo BrancoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| UD da SerraCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Naval 1893Taça de Portugal | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| FazendenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| SertanenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SanjoanenseTaça de Portugal | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| GafanhaTaça de Portugal | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MortáguaTaça de Portugal | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from AD Nogueirense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 8 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
Naval 1893 recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felgueiras 1932Taça de Portugal | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| FC Alverca IICampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Oliveira HospitalCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| AD NogueirenseTaça de Portugal | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Benfica Castelo BrancoCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| UD da SerraCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| EstrelaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Vitória de SernacheCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Os MarialvasCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| LajenseCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Naval 1893’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Naval 1893 are ranked 6 in II Divisao: Group C, with 6 points from 4 games.
AD Nogueirense are ranked 7 in II Divisao: Group C, with 6 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | O Elvas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveira Hospital | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Naval 1893 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | AD Nogueirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Atlético Malveira | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Fazendense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 1 |
| 14 | Nazarenos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.