AFC Challenge League · Group Stage
AhalvsParo
RealScored · Match preview
Match prediction · 17 October 2026
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- AFC Challenge League
- Venue
- Changlimithang Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Ahal vs Paro: match review and analysis
Ahal vs Paro in AFC Challenge League on 17 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Ahal recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 24 and conceding 16. Paro recorded 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, with 40 scored and 4 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ahal | Paro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 10 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 4 | 0 |
| Goals scored | 24 | 40 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 4 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ahal: (2.04 weighted goals scored + 0.45 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.25 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Paro: (4.28 weighted goals scored + 1.77 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 3.02 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Ahal recent form
2.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altyn AsyrÝokary Liga | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| ArkadagÝokary Liga | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| AşgabatÝokary Liga | Away | 4–3 | Won | |
| NebitciÝokary Liga | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| ŞagadamÝokary Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| MerwÝokary Liga | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| ArkadagÝokary Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Köpetdag AşgabatÝokary Liga | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| AşgabatÝokary Liga | Home | 4–3 | Won | |
| NebitciÝokary Liga | Away | 4–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Ahal’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Paro recent form
4.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thimphu CityPremier League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Bhutan U19Premier League | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| Transport UnitedPremier League | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| Ugyen AcademyPremier League | Away | 10–0 | Won | |
| TsirangPremier League | Home | 7–0 | Won | |
| RTCPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Abu MuslimAFC Challenge League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| DrukpaPremier League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| ThimphuPremier League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| TensungPremier League | Away | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Paro’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
AFC Challenge League — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.