Eredivisie · Regular Season - 8
AjaxvsNEC Nijmegen
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Eredivisie
- Venue
- Johan Cruijff Arena
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: match review and analysis
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Ajax recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 32 and conceding 16. NEC Nijmegen recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 13 scored and 23 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 32 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 23 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ajax: (3.25 weighted goals scored + 2.53 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.89 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
NEC Nijmegen: (1.13 weighted goals scored + 1.73 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.43 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Ajax recent form
3.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExcelsiorEredivisie | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Willem IIEredivisie | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| Fortuna SittardEredivisie | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| PSV EindhovenEredivisie | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| TelstarEredivisie | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| FC SionUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 5–3 | Won | |
| FC SionUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| HeerenveenEredivisie | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ShelbourneUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PEC ZwolleEredivisie | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Ajax’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
NEC Nijmegen recent form
1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| JuventusUEFA Europa League | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| CambuurEredivisie | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| ExcelsiorEredivisie | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| FeyenoordEredivisie | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| PEC ZwolleEredivisie | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Willem IIEredivisie | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Champions League | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from NEC Nijmegen’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Eredivisie — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Ajax are ranked 5 in Eredivisie, with 14 points from 7 games.
NEC Nijmegen are ranked 11 in Eredivisie, with 8 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 17 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.