AFC Champions League Elite · League Phase - 2
FULL-TIME
Al-Gharafa1–2Esteghlal FC
RealScored · Match result
Match prediction · 12 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- AFC Champions League Elite
- Venue
- Thani bin Jassim Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–2
- 90-minute score
- 1–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC: match review and analysis
Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC in AFC Champions League Elite on 12 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–2. Review the team form and league context below.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Al-Gharafa recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 21. Esteghlal FC recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses, with 15 scored and 3 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Al-Gharafa | Esteghlal FC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 6 | 0 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 3 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Al-Gharafa: (1.65 weighted goals scored + 0.32 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.99 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Esteghlal FC: (1.26 weighted goals scored + 2.03 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.64 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Al-Gharafa recent form
1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al WakrahStars League | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Al MesaimeerQSL Cup | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FCAFC Champions League Elite | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Lusail CityStars League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Al SaddStars League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Al SaddQatar Cup | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Al ShamalStars League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Al ShahaniyaStars League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Al RiyadhFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ŠamorínFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Al-Gharafa’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Esteghlal FC recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Al SaddAFC Champions League Elite | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Persepolis FCPersian Gulf Pro League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Mes Shahr-e BabakPersian Gulf Pro League | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Esteghlal FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
AFC Champions League Elite — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Esteghlal FC are ranked 4 in West Region, with 3 points from 1 games.
Al-Gharafa are ranked 12 in West Region, with 0 points from 1 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Al Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Neftchi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Jeonbuk Motors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Buriram United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Port FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Ratchaburi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Pohang Steelers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Công An Nhân Dân | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.