Iraqi League · Regular Season - 9
Al Minaa BasravsGhaz Al Shamal
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 8 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Iraqi League
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal: match review and analysis
Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal in Iraqi League on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Al Minaa Basra recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Ghaz Al Shamal recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, with 4 scored and 5 conceded across 8 games.
| Statistic | Al Minaa Basra | Ghaz Al Shamal |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 8 |
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 4 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 5 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 3 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Al Minaa Basra: (0.99 weighted goals scored + 0.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.77 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ghaz Al Shamal: (0.49 weighted goals scored + 1.23 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.86 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Al Minaa Basra recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuhokIraqi League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Al KahrabaaIraqi League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Naft MaysanIraqi League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| NaftIraqi League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| ErbilIraqi League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| GharrafIraqi League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| ZakhoIraqi League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Al Zawra'aIraqi League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Al ShortaIraqi League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Al TalabaIraqi League | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Al Minaa Basra’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 8 GAMES
Ghaz Al Shamal recent form
0.50 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game. 3 of 8 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NewrozIraqi League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Al ShortaIraqi League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| DuhokIraqi League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Al-Jolan SCIraqi League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| GharrafIraqi League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Al Quwa Al JawiyaIraqi League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Al KahrabaaIraqi League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ZakhoIraqi League | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ghaz Al Shamal’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 8 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Iraqi League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Al Minaa Basra are ranked 10 in Iraqi League, with 9 points from 8 games.
Ghaz Al Shamal are ranked 13 in Iraqi League, with 8 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Newroz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Al Zawra'a | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Naft | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Shorta | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Duhok | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al-Jolan SC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Al Minaa Basra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Diyala | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Zakho | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Talaba | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Naft Maysan | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Mosul | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | Gharraf | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
| 20 | Karbala | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.