Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6
AlcúdiavsMercadal
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 11
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Alcúdia vs Mercadal: match review and analysis
Alcúdia vs Mercadal in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Alcúdia recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 20. Mercadal recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 11 scored and 23 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Alcúdia | Mercadal |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 20 | 23 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Alcúdia: (1.84 weighted goals scored + 2.28 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.06 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Mercadal: (1.11 weighted goals scored + 2.07 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.59 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Alcúdia recent form
1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CardassarTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 2–6 | Lost | |
| ConstànciaTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| SantanyíTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ArenalTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Inter IbizaTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| MercadalTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| BinissalemTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| FelanitxTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Peña DeportivaTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PortmanyTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Alcúdia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Mercadal recent form
1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ConstànciaTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| SantanyíTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ArenalTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Inter IbizaTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| FormenteraTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AlcúdiaTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Mallorca IITercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 0–7 | Lost | |
| LlosetenseTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 1–6 | Lost | |
| Platges CalviàTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| FormenteraTercera División RFEF - Group 11 | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Mercadal’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Alcúdia are ranked 11 in Tercera: Group 11, with 6 points from 5 games.
Mercadal are ranked 12 in Tercera: Group 11, with 5 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Constància | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Llosetense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Platges Calvià | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Santanyí | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Porreres | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Formentera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Binissalem | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Arenal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.