National League · Regular Season - 12
Aldershot Town1–3Carlisle
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National League
- Venue
- EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–3
- 90-minute score
- 1–3
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Aldershot Town vs Carlisle: match review and analysis
Aldershot Town vs Carlisle in National League on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–3. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Aldershot Town recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 12. Carlisle recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 18 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Aldershot Town | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 18 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Aldershot Town: (1.70 weighted goals scored + 1.51 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.60 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Carlisle: (1.58 weighted goals scored + 1.24 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.41 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Aldershot Town recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC HornchurchNational League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TamworthNational League | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| BarrowNational League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Yeovil TownNational League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Solihull MoorsNational League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| West Ham United U21National League Cup | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| FC Halifax TownNational League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| EastleighNational League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Harrogate TownNational League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Kidderminster HarriersNational League | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Aldershot Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Carlisle recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC FyldeNational League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| WokingNational League | Home | 2–5 | Lost | |
| EastleighNational League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Forest GreenNational League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SouthendNational League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Boreham WoodNational League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ScunthorpeNational League | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| WealdstoneNational League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AFC HornchurchNational League | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Yeovil TownNational League | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Carlisle’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Aldershot Town are ranked 10 in Conference, with 18 points from 12 games.
Carlisle are ranked 14 in Conference, with 16 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Southend | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Worthing | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 17 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 16 |
| 15 | Woking | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.