Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 12
Alfreton Town1–0United of Manchester
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 6 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Northern
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Alfreton Town vs United of Manchester: match review and analysis
Alfreton Town vs United of Manchester in Non League Premier - Northern on 6 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Alfreton Town recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 14. United of Manchester recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses, with 23 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Alfreton Town | United of Manchester |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 6 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Alfreton Town: (1.37 weighted goals scored + 1.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.40 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
United of Manchester: (2.37 weighted goals scored + 1.31 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.84 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Alfreton Town recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redcar AthleticNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Guiseley AFCNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Shifnal Town FCFA Trophy | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Bamber BridgeNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Stratford TownFA Cup | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Whitby TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| RylandsNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Hyde UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Stockton TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Cleethorpes TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Alfreton Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
United of Manchester recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worksop TownFA Cup | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Hyde UnitedFA Trophy | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Ossett UnitedFA Cup | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Warrington TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Garforth TownFA Cup | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| AvroNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 3–4 | Lost | |
| Redcar AthleticNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Bamber BridgeNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| WorkingtonNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Hyde UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from United of Manchester’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Northern — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Alfreton Town are ranked 8 in Regular Season, with 18 points from 12 games.
United of Manchester are ranked 22 in Regular Season, with 5 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Avro | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 25 |
| 4 | Guiseley AFC | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Rylands | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Alfreton Town | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Bury | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 16 |
| 11 | Gainsborough Trinity | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Whitby Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
| 16 | Stockton Town | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Quorn | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 9 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.