Primera Nacional · Regular Season - 33
Almirante BrownvsSan Miguel
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera Nacional
- Venue
- Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel: match review and analysis
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel in Primera Nacional on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Almirante Brown recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 8. San Miguel recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses, with 8 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Almirante Brown | San Miguel |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Almirante Brown: (0.86 weighted goals scored + 1.68 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.27 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
San Miguel: (0.76 weighted goals scored + 0.82 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.79 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Almirante Brown recent form
1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San TelmoPrimera Nacional | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| AcassusoPrimera Nacional | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Chaco For EverPrimera Nacional | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Ferro Carril OestePrimera Nacional | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Central NortePrimera Nacional | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Deportivo MadrynPrimera Nacional | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Defensores De BelgranoPrimera Nacional | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Tristan SuarezPrimera Nacional | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Ciudad de BolívarPrimera Nacional | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Racing CordobaPrimera Nacional | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Almirante Brown’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
San Miguel recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico MitrePrimera Nacional | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| All BoysPrimera Nacional | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Los AndesPrimera Nacional | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Godoy CruzPrimera Nacional | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Chaco For EverPrimera Nacional | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Colon Santa FePrimera Nacional | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ColegialesPrimera Nacional | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Racing CordobaPrimera Nacional | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from San Miguel’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera Nacional — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Almirante Brown are ranked 6 in Group 1, with 46 points from 32 games.
San Miguel are ranked 17 in Group 1, with 31 points from 32 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 51 | 32 | 19 | 58 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 56 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 46 | 28 | 18 | 53 |
| 5 | Colon Santa Fe | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 52 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 27 | 2 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 45 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensores De Belgrano | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | San Telmo | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 | Racing Cordoba | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 37 |
| 14 | Atletico Mitre | 32 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 35 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 33 |
| 16 | All Boys | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 33 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 29 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 32 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 32 | 15 | 17 | 58 |
| 2 | Temperley | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 56 |
| 3 | Atlanta | 32 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 55 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 54 |
| 5 | Midland | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 26 | 8 | 48 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 48 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 47 |
| 8 | Colegiales | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 46 |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 45 |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 32 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 35 | 32 | 3 | 43 |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 42 |
| 12 | Quilmes | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 39 |
| 13 | Almagro | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 38 |
| 14 | Agropecuario | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 | Nueva Chicago | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 36 |
| 16 | Patronato | 32 | 6 | 16 | 10 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 34 |
| 17 | Chacarita Juniors | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 33 |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 54 | -31 | 23 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.