Primera B · Regular Season - 27
AntofagastavsSan Marcos de Arica
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera B
- Venue
- Estadio Regional de Antofagasta
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica: match review and analysis
Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica in Primera B on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Antofagasta recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 8. San Marcos de Arica recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses, with 11 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Antofagasta | San Marcos de Arica |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Antofagasta: (1.96 weighted goals scored + 1.32 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.64 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
San Marcos de Arica: (1.24 weighted goals scored + 0.68 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.96 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Antofagasta recent form
1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad de ChileCopa Chile | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Rangers de TalcaPrimera B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Deportes IquiqueCopa Chile | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Deportes IquiqueCopa Chile | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| San LuisPrimera B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| CobreloaPrimera B | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| RecoletaPrimera B | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Deportes CopiapoPrimera B | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Deportes TemucoPrimera B | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Deportes IquiquePrimera B | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Antofagasta’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
San Marcos de Arica recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Santa CruzPrimera B | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Curico UnidoPrimera B | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| RecoletaPrimera B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Deportes CopiapoPrimera B | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CobreloaPrimera B | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Rangers de TalcaPrimera B | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Union EspanolaPrimera B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Union San FelipePrimera B | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Santiago WanderersPrimera B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Coquimbo UnidoCopa Chile | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from San Marcos de Arica’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Antofagasta are ranked 5 in Primera B, with 41 points from 26 games.
San Marcos de Arica are ranked 7 in Primera B, with 39 points from 26 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 48 |
| 2 | San Luis | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 44 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 43 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 26 | 18 | 41 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 41 |
| 7 | San Marcos de Arica | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 37 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | D. Puerto Montt | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 34 |
| 11 | Deportes Temuco | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 31 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 27 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 22 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 44 | -28 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 42 | -19 | 18 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.