First League · Regular Season - 13
Arsenal TulavsSpartak Kostroma
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- First League
- Venue
- Arsenal Stadium (Tula)
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma: match review and analysis
Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma in First League on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Arsenal Tula recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 17. Spartak Kostroma recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 13 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Arsenal Tula | Spartak Kostroma |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Arsenal Tula: (1.18 weighted goals scored + 0.77 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.98 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Spartak Kostroma: (1.24 weighted goals scored + 1.80 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.52 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Arsenal Tula recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA MoscowFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| LokomotivFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| EniseyFirst League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Ska-khabarovskFirst League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| TekstilshchikCup | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Volga UlyanovskFirst League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| UralFirst League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| VelesFirst League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Rotor VolgogradFirst League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| LeningradetsFirst League | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Arsenal Tula’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Spartak Kostroma recent form
1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UralFirst League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Volga UlyanovskFirst League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| FK NeftekhimikFirst League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| RyazanCup | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| ChelyabinskFirst League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Rotor VolgogradFirst League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Torpedo MoskvaFirst League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| FC UFAFirst League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Ska-khabarovskFirst League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| EniseyFirst League | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Spartak Kostroma’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
First League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Spartak Kostroma are ranked 3 in Regular Season, with 24 points from 12 games.
Arsenal Tula are ranked 12 in Regular Season, with 13 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 14 | 22 | 31 |
| 2 | Ural | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Spartak Kostroma | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | FC Sochi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Veles | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 23 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 21 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Rotor Volgograd | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Enisey | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 13 |
| 13 | Leningradets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chelyabinsk | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | FK Neftekhimik | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 | KAMAZ | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.