Liga MX · Apertura - 11
AtlasvsGuadalajara Chivas
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga MX
- Venue
- Estadio Jalisco
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas: match review and analysis
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas in Liga MX on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Atlas recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 19. Guadalajara Chivas recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 19 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 19 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Atlas: (1.54 weighted goals scored + 0.90 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.22 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Guadalajara Chivas: (1.89 weighted goals scored + 1.86 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.88 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Atlas recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club TijuanaLiga MX | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| U.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TolucaLiga MX | Away | 2–5 | Lost | |
| Atlante FCLiga MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Club QueretaroLiga MX | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Cruz AzulLiga MX | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Tigres UANLLiga MX | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| FC CincinnatiLeagues Cup | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CharlotteLeagues Cup | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Columbus CrewLeagues Cup | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Atlas’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Guadalajara Chivas recent form
1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club AmericaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Club QueretaroLiga MX | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Club AmericaLiga MX | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| U.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Atletico San LuisLiga MX | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| CF PachucaLiga MX | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Club TijuanaLiga MX | Home | 5–2 | Won | |
| Santos LagunaLiga MX | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Seattle SoundersLeagues Cup | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| FC DallasLeagues Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Guadalajara Chivas’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga MX — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Guadalajara Chivas are ranked 3 in Liga MX: Apertura, with 18 points from 10 games.
Atlas are ranked 6 in Liga MX: Apertura, with 17 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.