Serie D - Girone F · Group F - 6
Atletico Ascoli0–1Fossombrone
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie D - Girone F
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone: match review and analysis
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone in Serie D - Girone F on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Atletico Ascoli recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 14. Fossombrone recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 10 scored and 18 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Atletico Ascoli | Fossombrone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 18 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Atletico Ascoli: (1.03 weighted goals scored + 1.60 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.31 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Fossombrone: (0.87 weighted goals scored + 1.32 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.10 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Atletico Ascoli recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GiulianovaSerie D - Girone F | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Sporting TrestinaSerie D - Girone F | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| L'AquilaSerie D - Girone F | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MacerateseSerie D - Girone F | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| AngelanaSerie D - Girone F | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| PinetoFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TeramoSerie D - Girone F | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TeramoSerie D - Girone F | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SammaureseSerie D - Girone F | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| FossombroneSerie D - Girone F | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Atletico Ascoli’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Fossombrone recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vigor SenigalliaSerie D - Girone F | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Lanciano FCSerie D - Girone F | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Sporting TrestinaSerie D - Girone F | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| L'AquilaSerie D - Girone F | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Real GiulianovaSerie D - Girone F | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CesenaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| RecanateseSerie D - Girone F | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Castelfidardo CalcioSerie D - Girone F | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Atletico AscoliSerie D - Girone F | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AnconaSerie D - Girone F | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Fossombrone’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie D - Girone F — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Fossombrone are ranked 6 in Serie D: Group F, with 10 points from 6 games.
Atletico Ascoli are ranked 14 in Serie D: Group F, with 7 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 2 | Teramo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Ancona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Fossombrone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 7 | Notaresco | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Montecchio Gallo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Santegidiese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Real Giulianova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Maceratese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Atletico Ascoli | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Recanatese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Angelana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Pietralunga | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.