Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5
Atlético Astorga0–1Amorebieta
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Atlético Astorga vs Amorebieta: match review and analysis
Atlético Astorga vs Amorebieta in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Atlético Astorga recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 14. Amorebieta recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 13 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Atlético Astorga | Amorebieta |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Atlético Astorga: (1.18 weighted goals scored + 1.04 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.11 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Amorebieta: (1.26 weighted goals scored + 1.28 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.27 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Atlético Astorga recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestao RiverSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Marino de LuancoSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| BasconiaSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| PortugaleteSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Palencia CFFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Salamanca UDSFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Cultural LeonesaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| La BañezaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Deportivo La Coruña IIFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| UD OurenseSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Atlético Astorga’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Amorebieta recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ourense CFSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Racing Santander IISegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| BergantiñosSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ArosaSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Athletic Club IIFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MutilveraSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Sestao RiverSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Real UniónSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| GernikaSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Deportivo Alavés IISegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Amorebieta’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Amorebieta are ranked 8 in Segunda Rfef: Group 1, with 7 points from 5 games.
Atlético Astorga are ranked 16 in Segunda Rfef: Group 1, with 3 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bergantiños | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Eibar II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Deportivo Alavés II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Gernika | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| 7 | Basconia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Amorebieta | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Portugalete | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Real Oviedo II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Marino de Luanco | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Compostela | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Llanera | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atlético Astorga | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Arosa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.