Primera A · Clausura - 9
Atletico NacionalvsDeportes Tolima
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 8 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera A
- Venue
- Estadio Atanasio Girardot
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: match review and analysis
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima in Primera A on 8 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Atletico Nacional recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 22 and conceding 10. Deportes Tolima recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 8 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 22 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Atletico Nacional: (2.04 weighted goals scored + 1.17 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.60 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Deportes Tolima: (0.86 weighted goals scored + 0.97 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.91 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Atletico Nacional recent form
2.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuniorPrimera A | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Chapecoense-scFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MillonariosPrimera A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LlanerosPrimera A | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Internacional de BogotaPrimera A | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Águilas DoradasPrimera A | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo CaliCopa Colombia | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Alianza ValleduparPrimera A | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| Deportivo CaliPrimera A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Fortaleza FCPrimera A | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Atletico Nacional’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Deportes Tolima recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChicoPrimera A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Fortaleza FCPrimera A | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| America de CaliPrimera A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Once CaldasPrimera A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Santa FePrimera A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| LlanerosPrimera A | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CucutaPrimera A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Independiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| BucaramangaPrimera A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Independiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Deportes Tolima’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera A — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Atletico Nacional are ranked 1 in Apertura, with 40 points from 19 games.
Deportes Tolima are ranked 6 in Apertura, with 31 points from 19 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
Atletico Nacional are ranked 4 in Clausura, with 22 points from 10 games.
Deportes Tolima are ranked 8 in Clausura, with 19 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Llaneros | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 11 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.