Copa Colombia · Quarter-finals
Atletico NacionalvsIndependiente Medellin
RealScored · Match preview
Match prediction · 15 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Copa Colombia
- Venue
- Estadio Atanasio Girardot
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin: match review and analysis
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin in Copa Colombia on 15 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Atletico Nacional recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 9. Independiente Medellin recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 18 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Atletico Nacional | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 20 | 18 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Atletico Nacional: (1.70 weighted goals scored + 1.35 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.53 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Independiente Medellin: (1.68 weighted goals scored + 0.80 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.24 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Atletico Nacional recent form
2.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes TolimaPrimera A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| JuniorPrimera A | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Chapecoense-scFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MillonariosPrimera A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LlanerosPrimera A | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Internacional de BogotaPrimera A | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Águilas DoradasPrimera A | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo CaliCopa Colombia | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Alianza ValleduparPrimera A | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| Deportivo CaliPrimera A | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Atletico Nacional’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Independiente Medellin recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America de CaliPrimera A | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Santa FePrimera A | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MillonariosPrimera A | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| JuniorPrimera A | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| JaguaresPrimera A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| BucaramangaPrimera A | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ChicoPrimera A | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Deportivo PastoCopa Colombia | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Deportivo PereiraPrimera A | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| LlanerosPrimera A | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Independiente Medellin’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Copa Colombia — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza Valledupar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Popayan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millonarios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Llaneros | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Chico | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 5 | Depor FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 1 |
Independiente Medellin are ranked 1 in Round 1 - Group C, with 8 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Fortaleza FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Leones FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Cucuta | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Orsomarso | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Pereira | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Real Cundinamarca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Águilas Doradas | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Jaguares | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ind. Yumbo | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
A table position is not available for every team in this match.
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.