Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5
Atlético Porcuna2–3Churriana Vega
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–3
- 90-minute score
- 2–3
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Atlético Porcuna vs Churriana Vega: match review and analysis
Atlético Porcuna vs Churriana Vega in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–3. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Atlético Porcuna recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 21. Churriana Vega recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 11 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Atlético Porcuna | Churriana Vega |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Atlético Porcuna: (1.29 weighted goals scored + 1.38 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.34 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Churriana Vega: (1.06 weighted goals scored + 2.00 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.53 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Atlético Porcuna recent form
1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almería IITercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Granada IITercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Málaga IITercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 1–6 | Lost | |
| CantoriaTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| MotrilTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Torre del MarTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| El PaloTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| UD San PedroTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| AlhaurinoTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Ciudad de TorredonjimenoTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Atlético Porcuna’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Churriana Vega recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD San PedroTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| AlhaurinoTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Malaga CityTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Torre del MarTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MotrilTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MotrilTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| El PaloTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| UD San PedroTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AlhaurinoTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Ciudad de TorredonjimenoTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Churriana Vega’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Churriana Vega are ranked 9 in Tercera: Group 9, with 6 points from 5 games.
Atlético Porcuna are ranked 10 in Tercera: Group 9, with 6 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Marbelli | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Arenas Armilla | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Motril | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Málaga II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Almería II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | UD San Pedro | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Granada II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlético Porcuna | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Huétor Vega | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Atletico de Marbella | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Alhaurino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Cantoria | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Mancha Real | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.