Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 12
Avro5–3Lancaster City
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 7 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Northern
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 5–3
- 90-minute score
- 5–3
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Avro vs Lancaster City: match review and analysis
Avro vs Lancaster City in Non League Premier - Northern on 7 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 5–3. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Avro recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 28 and conceding 17. Lancaster City recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 11 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Avro | Lancaster City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 28 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Avro: (2.69 weighted goals scored + 1.59 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.14 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Lancaster City: (1.20 weighted goals scored + 1.74 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.47 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Avro recent form
2.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunston UTSFA Trophy | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Gainsborough TrinityNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Witton AlbionFA Cup | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| United of ManchesterNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 4–3 | Won | |
| Stockton TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 5–3 | Won | |
| Leek TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 4–4 | Draw | |
| Hyde UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| WorkingtonNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Alfreton TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Bamber BridgeNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 6–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Avro’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Lancaster City recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilkeston TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Whitby TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Cleethorpes TownFA Trophy | Away | 1–5 | Lost | |
| Bradford (Park Avenue)FA Cup | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Curzon AshtonNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Tadcaster AlbionFA Cup | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Tadcaster AlbionFA Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| WorkingtonNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Guiseley AFCNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| BuryNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Lancaster City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Northern — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Avro are ranked 2 in Regular Season, with 25 points from 10 games.
Lancaster City are ranked 12 in Regular Season, with 16 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Avro | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 25 |
| 4 | Guiseley AFC | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Rylands | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Alfreton Town | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Bury | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 16 |
| 11 | Gainsborough Trinity | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Whitby Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
| 16 | Stockton Town | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Quorn | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 9 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.