FAW Championship · South - 11
Baglan DragonsvsPontypridd Town
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- FAW Championship
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Real Scored match analysis
Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town: match review and analysis
Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town in FAW Championship on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Baglan Dragons recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Pontypridd Town recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 23 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Baglan Dragons | Pontypridd Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Baglan Dragons: (1.23 weighted goals scored + 1.71 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.47 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Pontypridd Town: (2.46 weighted goals scored + 1.25 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.86 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Baglan Dragons recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| llanelli AFCFAW Championship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Carmarthen TownFAW Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Cardiff DraconiansFAW Championship | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Afan LidoFAW Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Caerphilly AthleticFAW Championship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Caerau (Ely)FAW Championship | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Newport CityFAW Championship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Llantwit MajorFAW Championship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Swansea UniversityFAW Championship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Trethomas BluebirdsFAW Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Baglan Dragons’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Pontypridd Town recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llantwit MajorFAW Championship | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Aberystwyth TownFAW Championship | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Caerphilly AthleticFAW Championship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Afan LidoFAW Championship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Swansea UniversityFAW Championship | Away | 4–4 | Draw | |
| Trethomas BluebirdsFAW Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Cardiff DraconiansFAW Championship | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Pontardawe TownFAW Championship | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Treowen StarsFAW Championship | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Caerau (Ely)FAW Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Pontypridd Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
FAW Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Pontypridd Town are ranked 3 in South, with 19 points from 9 games.
Baglan Dragons are ranked 5 in South, with 16 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 11 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 6 | Caersws | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Llanuwchllyn | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
| 13 | Denbigh Town | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 30 | -26 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.