Thai League 1 · Regular Season - 4
BG Pathum UnitedvsAyutthaya FC
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Thai League 1
- Venue
- True BG Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya FC: match review and analysis
BG Pathum United vs Ayutthaya FC in Thai League 1 on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
BG Pathum United recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 14. Ayutthaya FC recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses, with 7 scored and 24 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | BG Pathum United | Ayutthaya FC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 0 |
| Losses | 4 | 8 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 24 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
BG Pathum United: (1.56 weighted goals scored + 2.37 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.97 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ayutthaya FC: (0.75 weighted goals scored + 1.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.19 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
BG Pathum United recent form
1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok UnitedThai League 1 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Home UnitedAFC Champions League Two | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Rasi Salai UnitedThai League 1 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| PattaniThai League 1 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Aston VillaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Buriram UnitedFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Roi EtFriendlies Clubs | Away | 5–0 | Won | |
| Port FCLeague Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| PrachuapThai League 1 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Muangthong UnitedThai League 1 | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from BG Pathum United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Ayutthaya FC recent form
0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uthai ThaniThai League 1 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Sisaket UnitedThai League 1 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| RatchaburiThai League 1 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Buriram UnitedFA Cup | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Port FCThai League 1 | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Bangkok UnitedThai League 1 | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| PrachuapThai League 1 | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Buriram UnitedThai League 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Lamphun WarriorThai League 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Nakhon Ratchasima FCThai League 1 | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ayutthaya FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Thai League 1 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Ayutthaya FC are ranked 8 in Premier League, with 6 points from 3 games.
BG Pathum United are ranked 9 in Premier League, with 4 points from 3 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Rayong FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Uthai Thani | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Prachuap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Bangkok United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Port FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | BG Pathum United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Chiangrai United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Pattani | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Sisaket United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Sukhothai FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Rasi Salai United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Lamphun Warrior | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.