UEFA Nations League · League B - 4
Bosnia & Herzegovina1–0Poland
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League
- Venue
- Stadion Bilino Polje
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 84′Ivan BašićPenaltyBosnia & Herzegovina
Cards
- 32′Armin GigovicYellow CardBosnia & HerzegovinaFoul
- 38′Nicola ZalewskiYellow CardPolandFoul
- 42′Ermedin DemirovićYellow CardBosnia & HerzegovinaDissent
- 76′Tarik MuharemovicYellow CardBosnia & HerzegovinaDissent
- 83′Jan BednarekYellow CardPolandFoul
- 90+1′Norbert WojtuszekYellow CardPolandFoul
Events updated
Lineups
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Sergej Barbarez
Starting XI
- 22M. ZlomislicG
- 7Z. SmajlovicD
- 18N. KaticD
- 4T. MuharemovicD
- 5S. KolasinacD
- 15A. MemicM
- 8A. GigovicM
- 13I. BasicM
- 16E. MahmicM
- 10E. DemirovicF
- 23H. TabakovicF
Substitutes
- 12S. HamzicG
- 1M. JurkasG
- 20N. OmerovicF
- 21S. RadeljicD
- 2N. MujakicD
- 3A. MalicD
- 14I. SunjicM
- 6B. TahirovicM
- 17A. HasicM
- 19J. LukicF
- 11E. BajraktarevicF
- 9S. BazdarF
Poland
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: Jan Urban
Starting XI
- 1M. BulkaG
- 2M. CashD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 14J. KiwiorD
- 19P. FrankowskiD
- 16W. NowakM
- 11K. SwiderskiM
- 20S. SzymanskiM
- 10P. ZielinskiM
- 21N. ZalewskiM
- 9M. ZukowskiF
Substitutes
G: goalkeeper · D: defender · M: midfielder · F: forward. Select a player to view their profile.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland: match review and analysis
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland in UEFA Nations League on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Bosnia & Herzegovina recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Poland recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 19 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 19 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Bosnia & Herzegovina: (1.32 weighted goals scored + 1.54 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.43 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Poland: (2.00 weighted goals scored + 1.25 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.63 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Bosnia & Herzegovina recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SwedenUEFA Nations League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| RomaniaUEFA Nations League | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| PolandUEFA Nations League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| USAWorld Cup | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| QatarWorld Cup | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| SwitzerlandWorld Cup | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| CanadaWorld Cup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| PanamaFriendlies | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| FYR MacedoniaFriendlies | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ItalyWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Bosnia & Herzegovina’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Poland recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RomaniaUEFA Nations League | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| SwedenUEFA Nations League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| NigeriaFriendlies | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| UkraineFriendlies | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| SwedenWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| AlbaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| MaltaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| NetherlandsWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LithuaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Poland’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
UEFA Nations League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | FYR Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
Bosnia & Herzegovina are ranked 2 in League B - Group D, with 8 points from 4 games.
Poland are ranked 3 in League B - Group D, with 4 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Albania | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.